Balance of power
Solid = called by AP. Hatched = leading in races not yet called. Vote counts from the AP feed as published by The New York Times.
Where the night is headed
Bruce Mehlman's four tiers. The needle is D seats called + leading, with no-result races filled by their pre-election rating (dashed needle = ratings only, nothing counted yet).
House tells
Mehlman's bellwether districts by poll-close time. A district lights up for the party winning it; a seat in a blue tier that goes blue says the night is at least that big. Dashed boxes are GOP tests: a pass is a red signal.
Swing vs. 2024
Each dot is a race: how far its 2026 margin has moved from the 2024 presidential margin on the same lines (Rove's rule: read results against 2024). Solid = called; faint = early count.
Senate vs. the benchmarks
Live margin against Mehlman's tier ranges (Oct. 30 RCP average shifted by a uniform polling miss). Dashed outline = under 40% of expected vote in.
Other Senate races
Keys to watch for
Latest calls
Governors
36 races. Stripe = party holding the office now.